Cable 231676

Se detalla un almuerzo entre el precandidato a la presidencia colombiana Juan Manuel Santos y el embajador de EE.UU. en Bogotá, William Brownfield. Santos mencionó que el Acuerdo de Defensa EE.UU.-Colombia era un avance estratégico para disuadir la amenaza de Venezuela.

id:

 231676

date:

 10/27/2009 23:00

refid:

 09BOGOTA3269

origin:

 Embassy Bogota

classification:

 CONFIDENTIAL

destination:

header:

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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300

ZNY CCCCC ZZH

R 272300Z OCT 09

FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534

INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126

RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456

RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482

RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO

RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA

----------------- header ends ----------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KJUS, PHUM, CO, EC, VE 

SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH 

AMBASSADOR 

CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 

Summary 

------- 

1. (C) Former Minister of Defense and pre-candidate for President 

Juan Manuel Santos told Ambassador October 23 he believes President 

Alvaro Uribe is leaning toward reelection but may fail to fulfill 

the legal and electoral steps to achieve it.  While promoting the 

third term for Uribe, Santos is positioning himself as Uribe's 

successor if necessary.  He thought his chances good against the 

remaining field of candidates, though much depends on what 

alliances are struck among them.  Regarding the U.S.-Colombia 

relationship, Santos said his country needed the United States to 

stand up against others in South America with a contrary political 

outlook.  End Summary. 

Uribe's "Crucible of the Soul" 

------------------------------ 

2. (C) At a lunch hosted by Ambassador, former Minister of Defense 

Santos told the Ambassador that he remains dedicated to promoting 

President Uribe's third term prospects but will gladly step in as 

the U Party's presumptive candidate if those efforts are not 

successful.  Santos said he believed Uribe had been tending toward 

not running for reelection last May when Uribe gave him the 

go-ahead to resign from the Ministry of Defense so that Santos 

could run for President.  At that time, Santos said he thought 

Uribe's chances of changing the Constitution were good. 

3. (C) That perception was changed, Santos said, by the illegal 

wiretap scandal at the Administrative Department of Security (DAS) 

and intimations by the International Criminal Court that it may 

entertain cases from Colombia when the GOC's reservation to the 

Treaty of Rome expires in November.  Santos perceived that Uribe 

viewed these events as potential setbacks to his Democratic 

Security Policy and, as a result, was now more desirous of a third 

term.  However, Santos believed that time was too short to carry 

out the steps remaining to achieve reelection.  He even doubted 

that Uribe could mobilize the 7.2 million votes necessary for the 

referendum to be valid. 

Candidate Santos 

---------------- 

4. (C) If Uribe steps aside, Santos was certain he could win the 

presidency in two rounds, though much depended on how the other 

candidates might align before and after the first round.  He 

thought it unlikely that Conservative Party (PC) hopeful Noemi 

Sanin would join his campaign given their poor relationship.  The 

other PC pre-candidate, Andres Felipe Arias, is embroiled in a 

scandal over agricultural subsidies; Santos thought the young 

politician would be patient and wait for a future opportunity to 

make his run.  Santos detailed the Left's dilemma:  the Liberal 

Party (LP) can ally with fellow anti-reelection parties Democratic 

Alternative Pole (PDA) or Radical Change (CR), but not both given 

their contrary political leanings.  Santos discounted independent 

candidate Sergio Fajardo altogether, saying that his campaign had 

stagnated.  While the May 2010 elections were "an eternity" away in 

political terms, Santos imagined a scenario where he and Sanin 

finish in the top two, making the final round a contest against 

right-leaning candidates. 

Colombia Regional Relations 

--------------------------- 

5. (C) Santos said he was disappointed at the Foreign Ministry's 

handling of the rapprochement with Ecuador.  The fact that a judge 

in Ecuador was seeking his extradition, along with Chief of Defense 

Freddy Padilla and Director of the Colombian National Police Oscar 

Naranjo, for the March 2008 attack on Raul Reyes' Revolutionary 

Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp in Ecuador was a problem for 

the Colombian State, he said.  Santos said the Foreign Ministry was 

too focused on restoring relations with Ecuador and was not doing 

enough to defend the high-ranking Colombian officials involved in 

the operation. 

6. (C) He similarly criticized the Foreign Ministry for not doing 

more to isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez internationally. 

He said the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), 

which he initiated as Minister of Defense, was a strategic advance 

for Colombia to deter the threat from Venezuela. 

BROWNFIELD